The operating profit of Bet365 for the financial year 2019-20 was a whopping $1 billion. Yes, let that amount sink in. If you’re thinking how enormous the number is, here’s a comparison- 1 million seconds is only 11 days while 1 billion seconds is 31 years! Surely, the entire amount has not come from betting profits alone, but that is too big a number to ignore.
The thing with predicting the results of a game is that it is not easy, and it is never 100% accurate. There are uncountable things that will happen during a match that is going to affect the outcome. The most highly skilled people employed by Bet365 will work for over 40 hours every week to give you the odds. That is how humongous the task at hand is.
Mathematical Prediction Is Not a Lazy Man’s Forte
Let’s go for a basic question – can a carpenter build a website? The most honest and straightforward answer is- “not likely”! Even if the carpenter starts learning how to design a website, it will take him months to master the craft before actually designing a fully functioning website. Similarly, if you are only looking at the names against a mathematical prediction and betting simply based on that, the current form of the team, and likewise, you are the foolish carpenter set on building the website.
You have to understand how the whole thing works before you can use the tools at your disposal. You would have to invest a lot of time into learning the finer details of analyzing and predicting matches. If you are not willing to put up the hard work, you will fail, and you will do so drastically!
Once you learn how to analyze, for the most accurate football predictions you have to spend time analyzing the fixtures. You will see that by the end of it, you will be betting on only 10% of the fixtures. That is a small reward for such hard work, but that is how it is if you are thinking of fooling the bookies and turning the table.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the most useful bit of information if you are attempting to understand how odds work. If you roll a dice 1000 times and check your readings, you will find that each number on the dice was repeated about 1/6th of the time. This is a fact; there is no way around this. A trained bookie will find ways of using this number in different ways to fool you, and that is what you have to crack!
How does the bookie do it you ask? Well, 1/6 culminates into 16.66…% which is represented in decimal odds as 6.00. the bookmaker will try by pushing the odds such that they are less than 6.00 and everything else will naturally follow. So, to distinguish a good odd from a bad one, you need to spend considerable time learning about the theory of probability.
There Is No Place for Emotions
Another very important thing you have to remember if you want to make the winning bet is that you have to get rid of emotions. Once again, there is NO place for emotions while you are betting on a match. Manchester United might be your favorite team- however if ManU is playing Liverpool, and the odds are in favor of the latter, then you will bet on the latter- as simple as that! There is stronger favoritism towards the data of your heart than the data of facts making way for blunders. This is a field of pure mathematics and logic and your heart has no role to play in it. If you are unable to distinguish between fact and feelings, then betting is not for you.
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